The election night playbook will take you through the three potential election scenarios and how they will impact cannabis laws over the next few years.
The best 1:28 you can spend as a cannabis investor
Scenario 1: Democrats Win it All
Biden wins the presidency and the Senate flips democratic.
This is a dream scenario for cannabis regulations.
Soon after the president is sworn in he will decriminalize cannabis or loosen regulations enough to give businesses full access to the U.S. banking system (similar to the STATES act currently floating around the House).
Next will be full nationwide medical legalization either in 2021 or 2022.
Nationwide recreational legalization is also on the horizon a year or two after medical but it will take some time to build up political momentum.
Scenario 2: Democratic President but the Senate Stays Republican
In this scenario, investors can also be assured that banking access will be granted to the industry.
Banking access lowers the cost of borrowing and increases efficiency vs having to transact solely in cash.
With Biden as president and the House sympathetic to cannabis there will also be decriminalization in his first year of office.
However, a Republican Senate hostile to cannabis will make it hard to pass nationwide medical or recreational legalization.
We think the most likely outcome is still state by state legalization though the timeline to a critical mass of legal states will be shortened considerably
Scenario 3: The Status Quo
A Trump victory and Republicans holding onto control of the Senate will mean more of the same for cannabis laws.
State by state legalization will continue until there is a critical mass of states to push decriminalization and legalization through Congress.
The green wave is still happening, but in this scenario, it will take longer than in the other election outcomes.
In Part 2 we’ll move from regulations to stock picking.
Which US cannabis stocks to own depending on each election outcome.
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